The Africa Union Chairpersonship, a Legal and Political Conundrum.
Author: Powell Buluma.
On August 27th, East African heads of state gathered in State House, Nairobi, formally unveiled Raila Odinga as the sub-region's selected candidate for the African Union Chairperson (AUC) seat. The seat is one that is considered to be of great prestige not only to the winner but also to the winner's country. The last time Kenya threw a glove into the ring, it resulted in former Kenyan Foreign Minister Amina Mohamed being narrowly beaten to the seat by Chad's Moussa Faki Mahamat. My guess is as good as yours as to whether Mr. Odinga will win the elections which will be held in February of 2025.
To the winner, the position of AUC is one that brings with it several perks. These perks include a basic salary of $15,576.75 with a $250 monthly allowance for eligible children of the holder and full school fees coverage or up to $15,000 per year if the station is in Europe or North America and a monthly rental allowance of $6,000. As the saying goes, to whom much is given, much is expected, and this is no exception. The job is a full-time diplomatic job which requires the holder to manage the commission's finances and administration. In addition, the holder is tasked with coordinating between the commission and all relevant stakeholders while ensuring the smooth running of the commission and enhancing its performance. Last but not exhaustively, the holder is tasked with Assembling the African Union (AU) budget and strategic planning papers in collaboration with the Permanent Representatives of AU Member States (PRC) and serving as a repository for all AU treaties and legal instruments while selecting and overseeing Commission personnel and presiding over all Commission meetings and discussions.
To promote equality in opportunity, the seat for the AUC chairperson is held on a rotational basis among Africa's 5 regions namely Southern, Central, Eastern, Western, and Northern Africa. Currently, it is Eastern Africa's turn to have the position and Mr. Odinga faces stiff competition from Djibouti's Mahmoud Ali Youssef. Kenya has historically always taken a neutral stance to international politics but has recently under President William Ruto thrown its lot with the West. This was made clear when on June 15th, 2024, where in Switzerland, he joined world leaders in publicly condemning Russia's invasion of Ukraine calling it unlawful, unjust, and against international law. Russia currently has its mercenary Wanger group active in many African countries including the Central African Republic, Mali and Chad. The politics and economy of some of these countries is reported to be influenced by the Russian controlled Wagner group.
Djibouti on the other hand, is viewed by the international community as a beacon of neutrality. This is evidenced by the fact that Djibouti currently hosts eight foreign military bases belonging to Germany, Spain, Italy, France, the United States, the United Kingdom, China, and Saudi Arabia some of whom are ideological opponents. In addition to this, Djibouti is an Islamic French-speaking country. Two days after Mr. Odinga secured the backing of the East African Community, the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) resolved to back Djibouti's Mahmoud Ali Youssef while historically speaking, French-speaking countries have often backed their fellow French-speaking countries in such elections. Going back to Russia's Wagner group, many of the countries in which they have a presence are French-speaking and with Kenya finally siding with the West in condemning Russia, the Group might just influence such countries to further side with Djibouti's candidature. France, a Western country which has historically held great influence in French-speaking West African countries has recently seen this influence rapidly wane in the face of anti-French coup leaders coming into power within the Sahel countries. These events have further diminished their potential lobbying of Kenya's candidature.
In light of all these international developments, there are still several months left until the elections and in International Affairs, standings change quickly. As previously stated in the first paragraph, my guess as to whether or not Mr. Odinga will win is as good as yours. The position brings with it great responsibilities as well as benefits and whoever wins will have a herculean task as those before them have in uniting and ensuring cohesion in the world's 2nd largest continent.
